Indonesia’s Trade Balance Surpasses $4.34 Billion in September 2025

Indonesia’s economic performance in September 2025 has once again highlighted its resilience and robust trade dynamics, with the country recording a trade balance surplus of US$4.34 billion. This achievement marks another milestone in Indonesia’s long-standing streak of trade surpluses, which has now extended to 65 consecutive months, starting from May 2020.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that the surplus in September was slightly lower compared to the previous month, showing a 21% decline month-on-month (mtm). However, it still represented a 37% increase year-on-year (yoy), underscoring the sustained strength of Indonesia’s export sector despite global economic headwinds.

A Stronger Non-Oil and Gas Sector

One of the key drivers behind this positive trade performance was the non-oil and gas sector, which contributed a surplus of US$5.99 billion. This segment saw strong exports of commodities such as animal/vegetable fats and oils, mineral fuels, and iron and steel. These products are critical to Indonesia’s export strategy, especially in the context of shifting global supply chains and increased demand for industrial raw materials.

However, the oil and gas sector recorded a deficit of US$1.64 billion, primarily due to petroleum products and crude oil. This deficit is part of a broader trend where the oil and gas sector has been under pressure, with cumulative deficits reaching US$13.71 billion from January to September 2025.

Despite this, the non-oil and gas surplus remained strong, contributing US$47.19 billion to the overall trade balance. As a result, Indonesia’s total trade balance for the first nine months of 2025 stood at US$33.48 billion, a testament to the country’s diversified and resilient export base.

Strategic Export Growth and Global Demand

The surge in Indonesia’s trade surplus can also be attributed to frontloading strategies by exporters ahead of the implementation of new tariffs. In particular, exports to the United States saw a significant boost, with non-oil exports to the US rising by 20.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. This was driven by increased shipments of vegetable oils, electrical machinery, base metals, and semiconductors.

According to data from the first half of 2025, Indonesia’s total goods trade surplus reached US$19.5 billion, a 25% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was largely fueled by frontloading of exports before the US tariff implementation, which was set to take effect in August 2025.

Import Dynamics and Economic Implications

On the import side, Indonesia’s total imports rose by 5.7% year-on-year to US$115.9 billion in the first half of 2025. This increase was mainly driven by capital goods, including machinery and production equipment, reflecting continued private sector investment activity.

While the rise in imports may seem concerning, it is an indicator of economic expansion and industrial development. The government has been working to ensure that this growth is sustainable, balancing import needs with domestic production capabilities.

Outlook for the Second Half of 2025

Looking ahead, economists anticipate that trade momentum may slow down in the second half of 2025 as the effects of the new US tariffs begin to take hold. The frontloading effect that boosted first-half exports may fade, particularly if global demand remains soft or geopolitical tensions escalate.

However, Indonesia’s long-standing trade surplus provides a critical buffer for the economy. The stable surplus should help support the rupiah and create space for Bank Indonesia to pursue further monetary easing if domestic demand slows.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the positive trade figures, challenges remain. The oil and gas sector’s deficit continues to be a concern, and the impact of tariffs on non-oil exports could pose risks in the coming months. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating commodity prices may affect future trade balances.

Nonetheless, Indonesia’s ability to maintain a consistent trade surplus over 65 months demonstrates the resilience of its export sector and the effectiveness of its economic policies. The government and central bank are well-positioned to manage these challenges through strategic interventions and policy adjustments.

Conclusion

Indonesia’s trade balance surplus of US$4.34 billion in September 2025 is a clear indication of the country’s strong economic fundamentals and diversified export base. While challenges lie ahead, the sustained surplus offers a solid foundation for continued growth and stability in the years to come.

As Indonesia navigates the complexities of the global economy, its focus on export diversification, industrial development, and trade relations will be crucial in maintaining its position as a key player in Southeast Asia.

FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What is the significance of Indonesia’s trade surplus?

A: A trade surplus indicates that Indonesia is exporting more than it is importing, which strengthens its currency, improves its economic stability, and supports domestic industries.

Q2: Why did Indonesia’s trade surplus shrink in September 2025?

A: The decrease was due to a month-on-month decline, but the surplus still showed a year-on-year increase. This reflects the ongoing impact of tariff-related frontloading and fluctuations in global demand.

Q3: How does the oil and gas sector affect Indonesia’s trade balance?

A: The oil and gas sector typically contributes to a trade deficit, which reduces the overall surplus. However, the non-oil and gas sector compensates for this with a strong surplus, ensuring a positive trade balance.

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